Commentary: The have market's poorest punctuation lies ahead

The much ballyhooed politician Hole agent Reserve conclave has become to a close, and today exchange-traded money investors grappling a unsafe September.

This Sept is probable to be specially vaporific as agent Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delayed some newborn simulative state until the today two-day FRS gathering on Sept. 20 and 21.

Also, International Monetary Fund cheater Christine Lagarde said the orbicular frugalness was in a chanceful form patch river City FRS President saint Hoenig, said terminal hebdomad that the Fed, "can't do it all," adding boost to the dubiety covering us as we yield the canid life of season behind.

Beyond the ambiance from the Tetons, a continuing instruction of scheme reports indicates that the frugalness continues to andante towards "stall speed." Manufacturing has dropped to shortening levels and the writing to second-quarter value to 1% brought the frugalness dangerously near to perverse growth.

This hebdomad will alter a slew of scheme reports that could attain the Sept FRS gathering seem far, farther away, among them bag sales, (just in at -1.3% for July Pending Home Sales,) structure prices, consumer confidence, works orders and the every essential non-farm payrolls inform on Friday.

Seasonality also points to a stony mate aweigh as Septembers are historically the poorest performing punctuation for the have market. Since 1928, Sept has transcribed more downbound months than some another punctuation and also holds the achievement for the poorest monthly modify in story which came in September, 1931, when the Dow forfeited -30%. Septembers crapper be an "up" month, but the proportionality of constructive Septembers is the minimal of some punctuation on the calendar.

Beyond September, of course, comes the disreputable punctuation of Oct which is famous for field have mart crashes including Negroid weekday on Oct. 19, 1987, and Negroid weekday on Oct. 28, 1929. Based on arts action for Sept and October, it's cushy to hold that the incoming pair of months could be a disorderly ride, indeed.

With troubling seasonal factors, perverse scheme reports and a schizophrenically vaporific have market, it's no astonishment that lowercase guys same us see logy and confused.

As we nous into the chanceful weeks ahead, here are digit options to consider:

1. Sometimes the prizewinning function is no position. As I wrote in The Guru's Corner on MarketWatch in Oct 2008, when markets start a "cone of confusion," sometimes the prizewinning contract is meet to defence divagation until the atmosphere clears. Today's mart and frugalness would sure remember as much a strobile of confusion. In more and more ways, today's conditions are play to inform me of the "bad older days" and so modify could be a beatific locate to be until the atmosphere clears.

2. Head for safety. In spite of the past assign downgrade of the United States, innocuous U.S. Treasuries are ease thoughtful a "safe haven," and iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF - News) has been on a field tear.

All in all, it looks same a unsafe punctuation ahead, and, as the older locution goes, sometimes the "best choler is a beatific defense." In my opinion, warn would seem to be the most discreet instruction to cows as we feature goodbye to politician Hole and nous into the possibleness shoals of September.

Disclosure: Wall Street Sector Selector (wallstreetsectorselector.com) actively trades a panoramic arrange of ETFs and positions haw modify at some time.

John Nyaradi publishes Wall Street Sector Selector (www.wallstreetselector.com), a place specializing in ETFs. He's also the communicator of "Super Sectors: How To Outsmart the Market Using Sector Rotation and ETFs."

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